内容摘要：U.S. President Donald Trump talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border vi

U.S. President Donald Trump talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the inter-Korean border village of Panmunjeom in the Demilitarized Zone in June 2019. / Korea Times file

By Kang Seung-woo

En route to the presidential election in November, U.S. President Donald Trump has been increasingly promoting the illusion of progress in ties with North Korea.

However, diplomatic watchers say it is nothing more than a campaign strategy to stay in power for four more years.

Last week, Trump said he would make "deals" with North Korea very quickly if reelected in November, followed by another report by Japan's Kyodo News saying the U.S. is seeking to establish liaison offices in both Pyongyang and Washington in order to advance denuclearization talks.

Trump held a summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Singapore in June 2018, becoming the first serving U.S. president to meet a North Korean leader; since then, they have met on two more occasions. However, there has been no progress in denuclearization negotiations, although the U.S. leader has touted a moratorium on long-range missile and nuclear tests based on his relationship with Kim, as the biggest diplomatic achievement of his presidency.

"I think Trump sees this as an issue where he can claim some success through his relationship with Kim Jong-un and will use that in the election," U.S. Naval War College professor Terence Roehrig said.

Daniel Sneider, an international policy expert at Stanford University, said Trump's repeated references to the North are not policy statements or calculated attempts to influence North Korea's behavior.

"Everything Trump does is about staying in power and getting reelected. There is no North Korea policy. He is only trying to deflect criticism that his wooing of Kim Jong-un has led to nothing, and to be able to still claim that he brought peace to the Korean Peninsula," Sneider said.

Speculation is rampant that the North may plan a military provocation before the U.S. presidential election to gain the Trump administration's attention. In that respect, despite no deal between the two sides, many believe that Trump's repeated references to the North are also aimed to prevent the totalitarian state from intervening in the election.

However, Roehrig said the North would be better off refraining from provocation.

"North Korea also understands that the reelection of Trump would be its best chance of cutting a deal that it viewed as favorable so Pyongyang will not do anything overly provocative that might hurt his chances of winning," he said.

The experts say Trump may follow through with his promise of a denuclearization deal if reelected, expressing concerns that he may reach an ill-advised agreement with Kim.

"If Trump wins reelection, there is certainly a possibility for progress on a denuclearization deal and it is well worth the effort to try. However, these talks must be part of a well-thought, long-term strategy. Coming at this issue with a view that it can be settled with one big deal is a mistake and optimistic in the extreme," Roehrig said.

Bruce Klingner, a former CIA analyst and North Korea watcher at the Heritage Foundation, also advised the U.S. not to indiscreetly accept the North's requests.

"The Trump administration should not acquiesce to partial denuclearization agreements or peace declarations that only provide the illusion of progress without resolving the North Korean nuclear, missile and conventional forces threats," Klingner said.

"Instead, Washington should continue pressing Pyongyang for discussions with Deputy Secretary of State Stephen Biegun, who remains the U.S. Special Representative for North Korea."