内容摘要：By Kim Jae-kyoungSINGAPORE ― U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are lik

By Kim Jae-kyoung

SINGAPORE ― U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are likely to reach a deal at their June meeting in Singapore, according to a noted political scientist on international relations, Tuesday.

He believes if the two leaders walk away from Singapore without a deal, they would be worse off than if there had been no summit as it will reduce options to a potential conflict.

Douglas Webber

"I don't think the two sides would have agreed to a summit without being fairly certain they will reach an accord," Douglas Webber, professor of Political Science at INSEAD, said in an interview.

"Both would stand to lose now from a failure. The difficult issues will concern the sequencing of their mutual concessions."

His view came after Trump announced last Thursday he would meet Kim Jong-un in Singapore on June 12 to discuss the North's denuclearization.

He thinks the main purpose of Kim coming to Singapore is to polish his international image and earn a security guarantee for his regime so he will not want to denuclearize before the U.S. has granted him the concessions he seeks.

"I am sure Kim will appreciate the boost in his international diplomatic and political prestige that his meeting the U.S. president will bring," he said.

"He will be looking especially for an easing, if not abolition, of existing economic sanctions on North Korea, a security guarantee from the U.S., and conceivably a reduction of the U.S. military presence in South Korea."

Webber, whose field is foreign policy and regional political integration in East Asia and the Asia Pacific, said the key issue at the Singapore summit is verification, citing Pyongyang's history of broken promises.

North Korea signed an agreement not to develop nuclear weapons in the 1990s but it reneged on its commitments then.

"Given this precedent, the U.S. will certainly insist on an agreement that minimizes North Korea's scope to defect from it," he said.

Webber, also a Robert Schuman fellow at the European University Institute, said the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear accord may also make Kim more nervous about signing an accord than he would have been otherwise.

"Both sides have reason to distrust each other. So it is by no means certain that, if an accord is reached, it will stand the test of time," he said.

From his perspective, another factor that may influence Kim's bargaining tactics is China's stance.

He pointed out that if Kim agrees to denuclearize, China, the invisible third party at the table, will likely support his insistence on a rapid dismantlement of economic sanctions on North Korea.

"China does not like North Korea having nuclear weapons, but they want it to be stable and not collapse," he said.

"China also does not want the South-led unification and a unified Korea ending up in a security alliance with the U.S."

Asked why Singapore was chosen as the venue for the historic summit, he said, "Singapore is a neutral venue and has diplomatic ties to both the U.S. and North Korea."

He added, "It is safe and secure and has a good track record of staging international summits, including notably, a few years ago, the first meeting of the Chinese and Taiwanese heads of state."